1. What if nuclear fusion became commercially viable by 2040?
Executive summary If fusion achieves commercial viability by ~2040 —defined here as grid-connected plants producing power at competitive cost and reliable scale—the consequences will be profound: structural shifts in power markets, acceleration of electrification and hydrogen economies, reconfiguration of geopolitical energy trade, and an industrial renaissance anchored in high‑temperature process heat and ultra‑reliable baseload for digital infrastructure. This scenario is plausible but not guaranteed : recent ignitions at LLNL’s National Ignition Facility (NIF) validate fusion physics, while private programs (CFS’s SPARC, Helion’s pulsed‑magnet approach) and public projects (ITER, STEP) are converging on pilot plants in the mid‑to‑late 2030s —with timelines fluid and highly execution‑dependent. [annual.llnl.gov] , [arstechnica.com] , [world-nucl...r-news.org] , [blog.cfs.energy] , [helionenergy.com] , [cnbc.com] , [gov.uk] Assumptions and scenario definition Technological ...